Posts tagged as models

15 Aug 2007

No nonsense economics: what’s gone wrong in credit markets, why it was predictable and what lessons investors should learn

Economics matter to wealth managers like No Monkey Business. To plan household finances and manage portfolios, we model financial market behaviour. How we model it requires some implicit views of how economies behave. At the heart of our views are some old-fashioned, let’s say orthodox, ideas about banking practice and its impact on the business cycle and asset price cycles.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
15 May 2007

Are equities overvalued?

Following a series of articles and letters in the FT disputing whether US equities are under- or overvalued, I sent a letter. My contribution to the debate reflects our company’s use, in wealth management, of a ‘long-term asset model’ which, amongst other clever things, generates projections for future real returns from market indices.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
13 May 2007

More grounds for scepticism about computer models of climate change

My first post on ‘the science’ of climate variance was very sceptical. No scientist, I do have experience of financial data analysis and the modeling of financial systems. Here is an interesting video from a group of Canadian sceptics, who call themselves Friends of Science

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
01 Apr 2007

Changing the wealth management model

Published in Professional Investor, May 2007 (Article by Stuart Fowler)

read more News by Stuart Fowler
10 Mar 2007

“The great global warming swindle”: in denial, or better science, better economics?

Channel 4’s documentary on Thursday night challenging the ’science’ of climate change was a reminder of how difficult it can be to keep your humility and scepticism intact when all around you seem to have abandoned theirs. Unconvinced by the certainty of others, I was keen to see it. The programme underlined three linked themes in the global warming debate that recur frequently in No Monkey Business’s take on the financial jungle: how much people’s opinions are formed on the basis of misunderstood statistics; how ideas follow the money instead of money following ideas; how ill-equipped we are to make sensible choices in the face of uncertainty. This is not an area of expertise for us but there are some interesting parallels with investment and decision making in conditions of uncertainty.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
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