John Paulson’s hedge funds famously made $20b betting on a US house price crash. He told the Sunday Times one chart gave him confidence to make his bet. It was the same data I featured on my blog in September 2006. Here’s why.
read more Commentary by Stuart FowlerFT columnist John Authers says the S&P never got really cheap in the recent bear market and that this is why ‘market historians’ fear it will retest the low. We reckon the March 2009 low was an historic extreme but that does not mean it will not be retested – that is just not predictable.
read more Commentary by Stuart FowlerWe describe our asset allocation changes and performance from December 2007 to August 2009. The returns themselves are quite impressive. How did this come about, if we knew we did not know what was going to happen in the short term?
read more Insights by Stuart FowlerIs it not obvious that investing in higher growth countries will yield higher returns? Not at all. This is one of the traps investors regularly fall into. Saturday’s FT has a timely reminder.
read more Commentary by Stuart FowlerAsk No Monkey Business clients what they most value about our approach and they mostly answer ‘more certainty’. On the surface this is odd as one thing singling us out, which stems directly from how we model real equity returns, is that we tell people just how uncertain are their wealth outcomes when partly relying on the systematic risk inherent in equities.
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