04
May
2009
Our analysis of the politics and economics of the 2009 Spring Budget
You can read on our business website the analysis sent to No Monkey Business clients after last month’s Budget.
read more Commentary by Stuart FowlerPosts tagged as economics
14
Apr
2009
The future of capitalism: much like its past
The self-destruction of a large part of the equity capital of many of the world’s leading banks, requiring taxpayers to step in and refinance them, is enough to make people think that the capitalist system itself cannot continue unchanged. Many of the broad sheets, plenty of bloggers and all the usual anti-globalisation suspects have therefore been asking momentous questions about the future of capitalism.
read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
04
Apr
2009
The return of currency volatility
With the global financial crisis, currency volatility has leapt about fourfold after a long period of false calm. For sterling, over the duration of this equity bear market, this has coincided with almost unprecedented declines of between 30% and 40% against the currencies of the equity markets we invest in. Since the UK was one of the economies with the worst financial imbalances, both between domestic sectors and with the foreign sector, this drop is a significant element of the required economic adjustment process. In this Insight, we look at the prospects for key exchange rates from two different perspectives: the underlying process, which we believe to be a function of Purchasing Power Parity theory, and a geopolitical view of possible exceptional developments, ranging from the loss of dollar hegemony to partial unwinding of the euro zone.
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04
Apr
2009
Equity risk: the inescapable impacts of business conditions
When living through a period of unusual economic instability it is useful to try to unlearn most of what we have learnt as a standard framework for savings and investment, and focus instead on the essential power, unpredictability and unfairness of business. In any form of market economy, business, and only business is the source of both national and personal wealth creation and it is also the source of the sometimes massive changes in economic fortunes between generations, even when the overall trend is for increasing affluence.
read more Insights by Stuart Fowler
04
Apr
2009
2009 Spring Budget
This was a deeply depressing budget, not so much because of the bleak economic context but because of the sense that, far from rising to the challenge, the Government is sinking into incoherence, inconsistency and irrelevance. We cannot remember a similar mood amongst professional advisers (not particularly prone to political bias) of despair and disdain.
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