12
Nov
2006
‘Useless house price forecasts’: rubbishing the rubbisher
We wrote (from No Monkey Business Limited, as financial advisers who do make forecasts of house prices) to the Financial Times letters editor, as follows, in response to an article by economist John Kay rubbishing attempts to forecast house prices. The technical basis for forecasting house prices referred to in the letter, using regression analysis of long time series data for average prices deflated by general inflation, is not new to this site. It is not a perfect model but it makes a lot more sense than blindly assuming that house prices are somehow immune from laws affecting other asset prices.
read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler