Archive for: 2008

16 Oct 2008

Legitimate bank bailout

Further to my post on 5th October, governments in Europe and the USA have come to the same conclusion I did then, that the Paulson plan did not confer sufficient legitimacy when taxpayers’ money is used to support a non-functioning banking system. Only equity stakes, punishing previous shareholders by dilution, combine the enlightened social interests enabled by mixed economies with the helpful disciplines of free-market economies. It was errors in establishing this balance that got us into the problem (errors in monetary policy, bank supervision and the conduct of shareholder responsibilities) and it is as well to get the balance right when we come to sort it out. That applies to immediate actions to prevent a melt-down and longer-term actions to prevent repetition of the errors.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
14 Oct 2008

A rational guide to cash management in politicised banking markets

There is not much in personal finance as emotionally charged as losing confidence in banks. This article brings together the various postings on the No Monkey Business blog at different stages of the banking crisis. Their purpose has been to be factual and rational, as a complement to instinct and habit and a counter to naked fear. As the crisis evolved, we have found ourselves changing our advice at different stages and adapting it to different people in different ways, but still rationally.

read more Insights by Stuart Fowler
14 Oct 2008

Equity valuation: no bargain basement

On traditional valuation measures, shares have remained quite highly valued and even after the most recent falls, taking into account lower earnings estimates, they are still not unusually cheap. We think this explains much of the weakness of equity markets, quite apart from the particular problems of financials, and also reduces the scope for sustained recovery from these levels.

read more Insights by Stuart Fowler
10 Oct 2008

Best Investment Adviser’ commendation

No Monkey Business has been awarded ‘Best Investment Adviser’ commendation as part of the High Net Worth Magazine, New Breed Adviser Awards 2008.

read more News by Stuart Fowler
10 Oct 2008

Descending into farce: Brown’s soft gurantee for all UK deposits

Since my piece below on systemic risk, PM Brown said in Paris that the Government would do whatever it had to in order to protect sterling deposits in British banks. Now Parliament knows… Following the logic I spelt out in that piece, if you believe the British Government can and will prevent loss of any uninsured deposits in UK banks, the implication is that you should rate banks as safer than money market funds since the latter also invest in commercial paper which is not guranteed and rises in risk as lending to companies dries up. But you might just want to wait to see what Parliament thinks before you trust this particular promise made on your behalf without debate.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
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