Archive for: 2008

18 Dec 2008

Standing out from the crowd

Published in Professional Adviser, December 2008 (Interview with Joseph Clark)

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29 Nov 2008

The Retail Distribution Review: no solution for consumer confusion

A key decision the FSA needed to make, after consulting the financial services industry on its June proposals, was how it could help consumers be clear about the differences between independent financial advisers and product sales people. Its conclusions, in a feedback statement last week, will not help. The problem is that effective distribution to the mass market cannot be achieved by expensive free-standing advice businesses and needs big high street institutions with manufactured solutions.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
29 Nov 2008

My dire warning for FT readers in 2004

In January 2004 I wrote the FT’s Personal Money front page in the days it was a broadsheet section of the weekend paper. The headline was ‘Time to put a ceiling on our money illusions’. The angle was that the rise in real house prices was something to worry about, not boast about. My analogy for the eventual correction was Japan. Here’s what I wrote:

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
29 Nov 2008

Spend, save or ’sauve qui peut’?

The pre-budget report last week was pure politics and has very little bearing on the momentum of a vicious credit cycle. In this slow train crash, the back carriages have not yet left the track. Judging by the public reaction, such as the audience of Question Time and on-street interviews, it was bad politics because it made the Government look like they were taking the voters for fools. We are being asked to believe that an unprecedented crisis calls for unorthadox measures. But we are also being asked to believe this will be a short and shallow recession. When the lead carriages left the track we were told the crash was bound to be worse because of low personal savings and high borrowings. Now we are being told to spend our way out of trouble. It does not add up and on the High Street they know it.

read more Commentary by Stuart Fowler
23 Nov 2008

Update on real house prices

Readers familiar with our measure of real house prices relative to trend will know that this peaked at a level very similar to two previous house price cycles but then remained there for much longer than in the past, propped up by easy money, as neither policymakers nor bankers saw the danger signals. After 12 months of falling real prices (through September) the ratio is down from 132 to 112. This is not much consolation as real prices are likely to fall well below trend before recovering. Read more to see the latest graph.

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