In January we posted a copy of the quarterly market commentary sent to wealth management clients of No Monkey Business Limited. We repeat the exercise here. The focus is on the risks facing financial markets in the late stages of an unusually long expansionary phase of the business cycle.

These are conditions in which investors with low risk aversion can still make good short-term returns but unwary investors with lower risk aversion tend to get caught out with excessively risky exposures when the cycle turns. And the timing is never predictable. If you thought the business cycle had been condemned to the history books and that monetary and fiscal authorities are working in sophisticated harmony to ensure well-balanced growth, you might find these ideas challenging.

TAGS: currency, economics, market timing